I know it’s been FOREVER since we blogged. Here are some random thoughts about this amazing election we’re about to partake in.
=Ben=
I can’t stand that yet another presidential election will come down to a choice of personalities rather than issues, culture rather than merits and ideas.
But, I have to say, McCain’s choice of Palin was an utterly brilliant political move and it could very well pay off with the presidency. After all this country has been through the past eight years, can you believe the GOP might still control the White House?!
It will be very interesting to see if this bounce holds up. Ferraro provided a big bump too, but that eventually dissipated. I think it will come down to how the candidates perform at the debates.
Following national polls might drive one mad, but they do offer a snapshot at voter opinion, and provide some sort of indication of national mood. And there is no doubt that the Palin pick has, if nothing else, energized the base and put suburban, “Reagan Democrat” soccer moms in play.
All these Democratic surrogates say they’re not worried, that women will not gravitate to Palin in significant numbers because there’s no way they would vote for a ticket with their conservative view on Roe v Wade. I certainly can’t speak for women, but I just have this feeling that, except for an upper echelon, most will vote for personality, someone they can relate to, someone who knows what it’s like to be a working mom and knows its inherent struggles, someone’s who’s tough and spunky, rather than caring about abortion rights and the Supreme Court. And I’m talking about older, independent, social conservatives who will likely never have to use those abortion rights in their lifetime.
McCain has redefined this race and is winning news cycles day in and day out ever since Obama’s big speech by putting his opponent on the defensive. My feeling is that any chance there was for a blowout (which, if you follow those nefarious polls, didn’t look like much of a possibility even before the Palin pick) has gone out the window. That is, barring a blatant “potatoe” moment for Palin. (No, her Bush Doctrine blunder unfortunately doesn’t count.)
I was reading something, I think it was Chuck Todd, where they were saying that if nothing else, Palin will likely prevent the Senate from getting a filibuster-proof majority of 60, which had been in play. If more of the previously apathetic GOP base shows up for the election, that will have dramatic effects down ticket. So what looked like what could have been a Democratic down-ticket romp now looks to be a more modest gain.
That said, it would be nice to see an Obama blow-out and see voters choosing on integrity and not responding to pig-lipstick attacks. But after the past two elections, I’m just not so sure America is ready to be trusted to make that choice quite yet. Maybe I’m just too cynical!
I wish we lived in a country where substance actually matters. I just think sometimes it’s possible to almost overestimate the electorate. Gore and Kerry certain did. (Kerry decided not to dignify the swift boat allegations with a response. Those allegations went on to define him as a candidate, as did his lack of response.) It really feels like lowest common denominator sometimes.
When it comes down to it, will Appalachia be willing to pull the trigger on a “pedantic, elite, arugula-loving celebrity foreigner who has the most liberal voting record in the senate with a pastor who damns America” who perhaps doesn’t share their values, or a plucky moose hunter and a war hero? Never mind the fact that this war hero has voted again almost basic veterans benefits.
Every day the McCain campaign goes without having to talk about the economy, about the war, about health care, about how he’s going to pay for his tax cuts, is a victory for the GOP. We are now in a campaign of distraction and character assassination … the very tactics successfully employed in the past two presidential elections. It’s just all looking too familiar, and this election really is a litmus test for how far this country has come.
Really, this is a referendum on culture. Will Rove-ian divide-and-conquer politics beat out the politics of hope?
On a more strategic note, I wanted to mention that this election is about Obama, and both sides recognize that. It will come down to whether people can trust him to do the job. But I wish he’d make this less about him and do what Bill Clinton did, make it more about the American people. That’s where McCain gets his “country first” motto, the implication being that Obama puts himself first. Perhaps it will just come down to which of these candidates people think have their best intentions in mind.
btw, a couple more thoughts on polling. There are two more sorta diverging forces at play when it comes to these polls. For one, the fact that cell phone users are not included in the sample definitely skews in McCain’s favor, since Obama’s voters are more likely than McCain voters to not have a landline. (http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem)
however, there is also the so-called “Bradley effect,” where polls are skewed by people who say they’ll vote for a black candidate but don’t actually do it. There was some evidence of this effect in the primary against Clinton, and you have to wonder how much of an impact that will have in a general election. I have a feeling the two forces will sorta cancel each other out and we might have polling numbers that are close to the result. That’s just my own speculation.
I recognize how Palin has energized the base. But on a personal level, I just don’t care for the smugness and the condescending way she mocked things like Obama’s “community organizer” experience. I think getting your hands dirty and working in a community is most certainly a great qualification to be president. Certainly more so than having five ridiculously named kids.
And sorry, I know, we’re not supposed to talk about people’s families. But that’s another thing that bugs me about the McCain campaign’s sexism allegations, which are clearly just another distraction from talking about the issues. So, it’s OK for us to talk about her son going to war, but it’s not ok to talk about teen pregnancy? It’s OK for us to admire her family when she brings them up on stage, but it’s not OK to lampoon those ridiculous names?
These are fascinating times to be an American. And I believe the very fact that McCain, not a party favorite, is the Republican nominee and Obama is the first black nominee of a major party shows that we Americans have, in a way, passed a test. But I guess we’ll see how we do on the next test: the politics of distraction vs. the politics of hope.
=Ben=
